"Urupfu rwarakabije", ni amagambo ya Stephanie Brinley, umusesenguzi mukuru muri IHS Markit. Ibiganiro kubyerekeranye na kazoza ka sisitemu yo gusunika ibikoresho bizatwara imodoka muri uyu mwaka. Haracyari ingaruka za Dieselgate, aho ingamba zo kugabanya cyangwa guhagarika imodoka za mazutu zaganiriweho - kandi sibyo gusa - na guverinoma namakomine, ndetse no kuvuka kwimodoka.
Nubwo urusaku rwinshi hamwe nuburakari bwatangajwe kubyerekeye iherezo rya Diesel no kuza kwa tramari kunesha, IHS Markit iteganya ko yerekana imyitwarire ishyize mu gaciro, haba mubakora ndetse no ku isoko. Ibintu byose byerekana ko, mumyaka icumi iri imbere, kuvanga ubwoko bwa moteri bizaba ibintu bifatika, bishobora gukemura ibibazo bisabwa - WLTP, RDE hamwe n’imyuka ihumanya ikirere cya CO2 -, ibyifuzo by’imibereho n’ibikenerwa mu bucuruzi.
Kugeza 2025, ibintu byose ni bimwe
Kubategereje impinduka zikomeye, kora amakosa. Moteri yigihe kizaza izaba imeze nkuyu munsi, bivuze ko moteri yo gutwika imbere izakomeza kuba ubwoko bwa moteri ikwirakwizwa kwisi. Ariko hamwe itandukaniro rito, nkuko bizerekana kwiyongera kwamashanyarazi - byoroheje bivangavanze bizagaragaza imbaraga mumyaka icumi iri imbere.
Muri 2010, kwisi yose, moteri ya lisansi yari ifite umugabane wa 70% na mazutu 21%. Hamwe numugabane uri munsi ya 1%, tramari yari marginal gusa. Mugihe cya 2025, hazaba hari andi mashanyarazi menshi, ariko spekrice izaba yiganjemo moteri yubushyuhe. Umugabane wa moteri ya lisansi ugomba no kwiyongera kugera kuri 73%, cyane kubiciro byo kugabanuka kwa mazutu, bizamanuka kugera kuri 17%.
Ku mugabane w’Uburayi (EU28), umugabane wa tram (harimo na plug-in hybrid) muri 2017 uzaba uri hagati ya 1.8 na 2% byisoko ryose. Mugabane uzamuka kugeza 2025, biteganijwe ko uzaba hagati ya 12 na 15%. Muri 2030 birashobora kuba 20 kugeza 22% byisoko. Ubundi bushakashatsi, bumaze kuvuga ku isoko ryisi, bwerekana imibare isa nkiyumuriro w'amashanyarazi. Mubyukuri ni igitekerezo cyumvikanyweho mubasesenguzi batandukanye ko tramamu izabona inyungu gusa mumasoko ya nyuma ya 2030.
Kuki nyuma ya 2030 gusa?
Bizatwara igihe kugirango amamodoka yujuje ibisabwa kugirango arusheho gukurura isoko. Ikoranabuhanga rijyanye na bateri rizagenda rihinduka - bateri zikomeye za leta zizaba impamo - ibiciro bizaba bimaze kuba bike ndetse no gushyiraho leta bizabigiramo uruhare - reba ikibazo cyUbushinwa. Ibintu byose bizakorera hamwe kuburyo isoko isanzwe ishishikajwe na tram.Nk’uko byatangajwe na Xavier Mosquet, umufatanyabikorwa mukuru mu itsinda ry’abajyanama ba Boston akaba n'umwanditsi w’ubundi bushakashatsi buherutse gukorwa ku ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi, ati: "amaherezo tuzagera aho gushimangira bitazaba bikenewe", maze asoza agira ati: "icyifuzo cy’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi kizaba gutwarwa n'imbaraga z'isoko ntabwo bigengwa n'amabwiriza ”.
Ariko kugeza icyo gihe…
Moteri yubushyuhe bwa "kera" izakomeza kuba imbaraga ziganje. Ndetse na Diesel izakomeza kugira uruhare runini mu kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere kandi amabwiriza mashya ya WLTP na RDE azagumya kwangiza imyuka ya NOx. Yego, ku mugabane w’Uburayi, aho Diesel yigeze gukora kimwe cya kabiri cy’isoko, byanze bikunze ibyabo kwota kugabanuka - ikintu dusanzwe tubona.
Nk’uko IHS Markit ibiteganya, umugabane wa Diesel mu modoka zitwara abagenzi mu Burayi uzagabanuka kugera kuri 39% muri 2021, 35% muri 2025 na 25% muri 2030. Kandi ntibiterwa cyane n’uko “kumenyekanisha nabi” biherutse, ahubwo ahanini biterwa no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro , cyane cyane ibijyanye na sisitemu yo gutunganya gaze, bizatuma moteri ya mazutu ibura mubice byo hasi yisoko.
Amashanyarazi igice cya moteri yaka imbere nayo azagira uruhare runini mukurwanya ibyuka bihumanya. Muri 2010, 94% bya moteri zose zo gutwika imbere - yaba lisansi cyangwa mazutu - nta mfashanyo y'amashanyarazi yari ifite. Muri 2016, iyi mibare yari imaze kugabanuka kugera kuri 62% kandi igomba gukomeza kugabanuka kugeza 2025, aho 22% gusa bya moteri zose zo gutwika imbere zagurishijwe ntizifite ubufasha bwamashanyarazi.
Amashanyarazi igice cya moteri yumuriro nimwe murimwe mubyemeza ejo hazaza h’inganda zitwara ibinyabiziga mu kurwanya ibyuka bihumanya.