The return to normality? The Chinese economy begins to show a turning point, after it was in China that the pandemic crisis of the new Coronavirus began.
A turning point that should translate into a gradual return to normal production values by the end of April, estimates Euler Hermes, shareholder of the Portuguese company COSEC – Companhia de Seguro de Créditos.
Negative impact on GDP
Despite this optimistic note about China's production, the analysis of the world leader in credit insurance points to two threats.
First, the performance of the Chinese economy will be constrained by a delay in the recovery of consumer confidence (real estate transaction volumes still remain 70% below normal levels).
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Secondly, it is important not to forget the impact that the containment measures that have been taken around the world will have on world trade, as the pandemic advances in other countries.
This note also estimates that the containment measures taken by Beijing in the first quarter of the year have impacted China's GDP by less than three percentage points — more than half (-1.8 pp) were due to the fall in private consumption.
China. Pandemic crisis less severe than the subprime crisis
In the first two months of 2020, Chinese trade growth was the lowest since 2016: exports dropped 17.2% and imports 4.0%.
Even so, one reads in the same analysis, the impact of Covid-19 is well below that caused by the 2009 crisis, when, in the space of just one month, exports slowed down -26.5% and imports -43.1 %.
Source: Euler Hermes/COSEC
Razão Automóvel's team will continue online, 24 hours a day, during the COVID-19 outbreak. Follow the recommendations of the General Directorate of Health, avoid unnecessary travel. Together we will be able to overcome this difficult phase.