Elon Musk is not usually measured with words and his deadlines to deliver what he promises are usually… optimistic. Musk acknowledges that he doesn't always meet deadlines, but what he promises ends up meeting. At the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day , we have a series of new promises related to autonomous driving.
Autonomous cars next year
First, autonomous cars in the next year, sometime in the middle of 2020, and all Tesla cars in circulation could become so. The hardware already exists, counting on eight cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors and radar , which the Tesla models already have from their origins.
For this task, a new chip with much greater computational power, which Musk claims to be “the best in the world… objectively”, and which is also already being assembled in the new Tesla produced.
Basically, if regulations allow it, a simple software update will suffice to turn all Tesla equipped with this hardware into fully autonomous vehicles.
TO DEAL? We do not need
Notably, Tesla announces such a close date for its first autonomous cars — most manufacturers and specialist companies have backtracked on their optimistic launch dates, postponing the introduction of fully autonomous vehicles for several years.
According to several experts, cars with autonomous driving level 5 are still realistically 10 years away if they use LIDAR technology — essential optical technology to achieve level 5 autonomous driving. Tesla says it doesn't need this technology to achieve that goal.
Elon Musk goes further and even states that "LIDAR is a fool's task and anyone who depends on LIDAR is doomed."
Without LIDAR, and using only cameras and radars, as Tesla is doing, experts say that fully autonomous driving is unattainable. Who will be right? We will have to wait for 2020.
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By then, according to Elon Musk's estimates, Tesla's autonomous system will have improved/evolved enough that drivers don't have to pay attention to the road.
Currently, Tesla already offers an option of 5400 euros called “Total Autonomous Driving” (FSD — Full Self-Driving) which, despite not allowing what its name suggests, already guarantees “automatic driving on the motorway, of the access ramp to the exit ramp, including interconnections and overtaking cars traveling at a slower speed.”
For the year, it will even make it possible to recognize traffic lights and STOP signs, which will guarantee automatic driving even in an urban environment.
robot taxi
With the launch of technology that allows tier 5 autonomous vehicles — and without limitations such as geofence (virtual fences) — Elon Musk also announced the launch of the first fleet of robot-taxis in specific locations in the US during the next year.
A fleet that in the future will essentially consist of customer cars. In other words, “our” Tesla can “work” for us, after leaving us at work or at home, performing services similar to those provided by Uber or Cabify — Musk had already mentioned in previous years that he intended to enter the world of ride-hailing services. The so-called Tesla Network seems to be closer than ever.
According to Elon Musk, “our” Tesla could end up paying for himself if he used enough in this type of service. The calculations he presented — considering the specific scenario of the United States of America — will allow a Tesla to generate up to 30 thousand dollars in profit per year (26 754 euros).
Already considering the more intensive use these cars will have, Musk also promised that he would soon be able to release cars that have a lifetime of one million miles (1.6 million km), with minimal maintenance.
Despite Musk's strong commitment to the Tesla Network, issues such as legal permissions to have fully autonomous cars circulating on the streets must be overcome, as well as the potential resistance of its customers to be available to let their personal car be used as a car. … taxi.