Rhoqo ngonyaka i-bp ivelisa ingxelo ehlalutya imeko yeemarike zamandla, “ bp Uphononongo lwamanani ehlabathi laMandla “. Njengoko kulindelekile, into epapashelwe unyaka ka-2020 ityhila "impembelelo enkulu ubhubhane wehlabathi ebenayo kwiimarike zamandla".
Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla aphambili kunye nokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kusetyenziso lwamandla kubhalwe ukwehla okukhawulezayo ukusukela kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi (1939-1945).
Amandla ahlaziyekayo, kwelinye icala, aqhubeka nomkhondo wawo wokukhula olomeleleyo, kugxininiswa kumandla omoya namandla elanga, awayenokukhula kwawo okuphezulu ngonyaka.
Iimpawu eziphambili zehlabathi
Ngo-2020, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla okuqala kwehle nge-4.5% - elona xabiso likhulu ukusukela ngo-1945 (unyaka weMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi yaphela). Oku kwehla bekuqhutywa ikakhulu yi-oyile, eyenze malunga neekota ezintathu zokuhla kwenetha.
Amaxabiso erhasi yendalo awele kwiminyaka emininzi ephantsi; nangona kunjalo, isabelo segesi kumandla angundoqo aqhubekile ukunyuka, afikelela kwirekhodi eliphezulu le-24.7%.
Umoya, isola kunye nemveliso yombane wamanzi ebhalisiweyo iyenyuka, nangona ukwehla kwemfuno yamandla yehlabathi. Umoya kunye namandla elanga anyuke afikelela kwi-238 GW ngo-2020 - ngaphezulu kwe-50% yalo naliphi na ixesha kwimbali.
Ngelizwe, i-United States of America, i-Indiya kunye neRashiya zibone ukuhla okukhulu kokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwimbali. I-China irekhode ukukhula kwayo okuphezulu (2.1%), elinye lamazwe ambalwa apho imfuno yamandla inyuke kulo nyaka uphelileyo.
Ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kusetyenziso lwamandla kwehle nge-6% ngo-2020, elona xabiso likhulu ukusukela ngo-1945.
USpencer Dale, ingcali yezoQoqosho kwi-bp"Kule ngxelo - kuninzi lwethu - u-2020 uya kumakishwa njengowona minyaka imangalisayo kwaye ingumngeni. Ukuvalelwa okuthe gqolo kwihlabathi jikelele kube nefuthe elimangalisayo kwiimarike zamandla, ngakumbi kwi-oyile, enemfuno enxulumene nezothutho iye yatyunyuzwa. ”
“Into ekhuthazayo kukuba unyaka ka-2020 ikwangunyaka wokuba izinto ezihlaziyiweyo zigqame kwimveliso yamandla ehlabathi, irekhoda olona hlumo lukhawulezayo lwakha – oluqhutywa ikakhulu ziindleko ezinxulumene nokuvelisa amandla kumalahle. Ezi ndlela zichanekileyo ukuba ihlabathi lifuna ukujongana nenguqu yalo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni - oku kukhula komelele kuya kunika indawo engakumbi kwizinto ezinokuhlaziywa xa kuthelekiswa namalahle "
EYurophu
Ilizwekazi laseYurophu likwabonisa impembelelo yobhubhane ekusebenziseni amandla - ukusetyenziswa kwamandla okuqala kwehle nge-8.5% ngo-2020, ifikelela kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi ukususela ngo-1984. iphawula elona xabiso layo liphantsi ukususela ubuncinane ngowe-1965.Ekugqibeleni, ukusetyenziswa kweoli kunye negesi yegesi nayo yawa, kunye namathontsi, ngokulandelanayo, i-14% kunye ne-3%, kodwa i-drop enkulu yabhaliswa kwinqanaba lamalahle (eliwela nge-19%), isabelo sawo sawela kwi-11%, ephantsi. okokuqala ngqa kwizinto ezihlaziyiweyo, eziyi-13%.
Iminyaka engama-70 ye-bp yokuJonga kwakhona kwaMandla eHlabathi
Ipapashwe okokuqala ngo-1952, ingxelo yokuPhononongwa kweNkcazo ibe ngumthombo wenjongo, ulwazi olubanzi kunye nohlalutyo olunceda ishishini, oorhulumente kunye nabahlalutyi baqonde ngcono kwaye batolike uphuhliso olwenzeka kwiimarike zamandla zehlabathi. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, inike ulwazi ngezona ziganeko ezimangalisayo kwimbali yeNkqubo yeHlabathi yaMandla, kubandakanywa ingxaki ye-Suez Canal ye-1956, i-Oil Crisis ye-1973, i-revolution ye-Iranian ye-1979, kunye nentlekele ye-Fukushima ye-2011.
Ezinye iimbalasane
IPETROLEUM:
- Ixabiso eliphakathi leoli (i-Brent) laliyi-41.84 yeedola ngomphanda ngo-2020 - elona liphantsi ukusukela ngo-2004.
- Imfuno yehlabathi ye-oyile yehla nge-9.3%, kunye nokwehla okukhulu kurekhodiweyo e-United States of America (-2.3 million b / d), iYurophu (-1.5 million b / d) kunye ne-Indiya (-480 000 b / d). I-China yayilelona lizwe kuphela apho ukusetyenziswa kwanda khona (+220,000 b/d).
- IiRefineries nazo zibhalise ukuhla kwerekhodi yeepesenti ze-8.3, emi kwi-73.9%, elona nqanaba liphantsi ukususela kwi-1985.
IGASI YENDALO:
- Amaxabiso erhasi yendalo ebhalisiweyo yehla iminyaka emininzi: ixabiso eliphakathi kweNorth American Henry Hub laliyi-1.99 yeedola / mmBtu kwi-2020 - elona liphantsi ukusuka kwi-1995 - ngelixa ixabiso legesi yendalo e-Asia (iJapan Korea Marker) ibhaliswe kwinqanaba eliphantsi kakhulu, lifikelela kwirekhodi layo. phantsi ($4,39/mmBtu).
- Nangona kunjalo, isabelo segesi yendalo njengamandla aphambili aqhubekile ukunyuka, afikelela kwirekhodi eliphezulu lama-24.7%.
- Ubonelelo lwerhasi yendalo lukhule nge-4 bcm okanye nge-0.6%, ngaphantsi komndilili wokukhula orekhodiweyo kule minyaka ili-10 idlulileyo, we-6.8%. Ubonelelo lwerhasi yendalo e-US lukhule nge-14 bcm (29%), luthintelwe ngokuyinxenye kukwehla okubonwa kwimimandla emininzi, efana neYurophu neAfrika.
AMAlahle:
- Ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle kwawa yi-6.2 ex joules (EJ), okanye i-4.2%, eqhutywa ngokuncedisa ukuwa e-US (-2.1 EJ) naseIndiya (-1.1 EJ). Ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle kwi-OECD kufikelele kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi ngokwembali, ngokolwazi oluqokelelwe yi-bp eyaqala ngo-1965.
- I-China kunye neMalaysia yayingahlukangayo njengoko barekhoda ukwanda kokusetyenziswa kwamalahle kwe-0.5 EJ kunye ne-0.2 EJ, ngokulandelanayo.
EHLAZIYWAYO, AMANZI NE-NUCLEAR:
- Amandla ahlaziyekayo (kuquka i-biofuels, kodwa ngaphandle kwe-hydro) akhule nge-9.7%, ngesantya esiphantsi kunomndilili wokukhula kwiminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo (13.4% ngonyaka), kodwa ngokukhula ngokupheleleyo ngokwemiqathango yamandla (2.9 EJ), xa kuthelekiswa ukukhula okubonwe ngo-2017, 2018 kunye no-2019.
- Umbane welanga ukhule wafikelela kwi-1.3 EJ (20%). Nangona kunjalo, umoya (1.5 EJ) ube negalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwezinto ezihlaziyiweyo.
- Umthamo wokuvelisa amandla elanga unyuke nge-127 GW, ngelixa amandla omoya akhule nge-111 GW - phantse aliphinda kabini inqanaba eliphezulu lokukhula elirekhodiweyo ngaphambili.
- I-China yayililizwe elinegalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwezinto ezihlaziyiweyo (1.0 EJ), ilandelwa yi-USA (0.4 EJ). Njengommandla, iYurophu yayiyeyona inegalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kweli candelo, nge-0.7 EJ.
UMBANE:
- Ukuveliswa kombane kwehle nge-0.9% - ukuhla okubukhali kunokuba kubhalwe kwi-2009 (-0.5%), unyaka kuphela, ngokwerekhodi yedatha ye-bp (eqala ngo-1985), ebone ukuhla kwemfuno yombane.
- Isabelo sohlaziyo kwimveliso yamandla senyuka ukusuka kwi-10.3% ukuya kwi-11.7%, ngelixa amalahle ehla ipesenti ye-1.3 yeepesenti ukuya kwi-35.1% - ukuhla okungaphezulu kwiirekhodi ze-bp.